Thailand Economic Outlook for 2025

Thailand Economic Outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with projected growth of 2.9%, up from 2.6% in 2024. While this marks an improvement, the growth remains below pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting the ongoing recovery. Domestic consumption and tourism continue to be the main drivers of GDP growth, supported by moderate fiscal policies. However, Thailand faces challenges such as global trade dynamics, sectoral disparities, and agricultural sector pressures that could impede sustainable growth.

Inflation is projected to range between 0.3% and 1.3% in 2025, with the Bank of Thailand targeting a 1.1% rate. Government stimulus measures are expected to help maintain inflation within this target range, despite rising energy and food prices. The government, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and the Monetary Policy Committee, aims to stabilize inflation between 1.0% and 3.0% while promoting economic growth and preventing systemic financial risks.

To stimulate economic growth, the Thai government is rolling out an extensive economic stimulus package that started in late 2024 and will extend into 2025. This includes cash handouts, debt restructuring programs, and investment incentives, totaling a budget of 157 billion Thai baht. The government has also introduced the Digital Wallet Program to boost private consumption, which is expected to increase GDP growth by 0.3% in 2024.

Tourism

In Thailand is forecasted to fully recover, with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) targeting 39 million international visitors in 2025. The government is investing in marketing campaigns, such as the "Amazing Thailand Grand Tourism and Sports Year 2025," aimed at revitalizing tourism. TAT is also focusing on niche markets, including wellness, luxury, sports tourism, and honeymoons, while enhancing infrastructure and promoting sustainable tourism for long-term growth.

Investment 

In Thailand is expected to grow moderately, with foreign direct investment (FDI) projected to reach USD 12.4 billion in 2025. Public investment in infrastructure projects and incentives for key industries such as electric vehicles, clean energy, and data centers will support this growth. The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) continues to attract significant investment, with 811 projects worth THB 422 billion focused on smart electronics and next-generation automotive industries.

Trade 

In Thailand faces both challenges and opportunities. Participation in trade agreements like RCEP and AFTA offers preferential access to key Asia-Pacific markets, but global trade uncertainties may slow export growth. Exports are expected to grow by 1.5% to 3.5%, with strong demand for agricultural products like rice, rubber, and seafood, as well as electronics and automotive goods. Thailand’s imports, driven by strong domestic demand and government stimulus measures, are expected to grow steadily. The country's balance of trade may continue to show deficits due to higher imports and slower export growth.

Thailand’s economic outlook for 2025 is shaped by a combination of moderate growth, fiscal policies, and tourism recovery. While challenges such as global trade tensions and sectoral disparities remain, the government’s stimulus measures and strategic investments in infrastructure, tourism, and targeted industries should help sustain growth and stability.

References: Krungsri Research, World Bank Group, Kasikorn Research Center, Bank of Thailand